Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 185.664629 225.775369 275.665287 343.475100 435.166005 5.578046e+02 7.396136e+02
2025-04-06 141.618778 188.284772 254.069662 357.678189 525.222062 8.030198e+02 1.343914e+03
2025-04-13 112.942598 158.851088 229.046916 351.395496 577.138317 1.021977e+03 2.130484e+03
2025-04-20 101.527376 150.219455 230.458754 384.673414 710.304319 1.487253e+03 4.126169e+03
2025-04-27 92.300711 142.300427 229.962864 413.275881 851.102684 2.114197e+03 8.241986e+03
2025-05-04 84.269794 134.397262 226.971670 435.283418 992.190895 2.932409e+03 1.726382e+04
2025-05-11 77.003364 126.295015 221.379447 449.343563 1124.338231 3.955043e+03 3.861322e+04
2025-05-18 70.188008 117.758609 212.862877 453.383901 1232.415805 5.128714e+03 9.281148e+04
2025-05-25 63.585732 108.562611 201.017950 444.983791 1295.806909 6.269434e+03 2.333137e+05
2025-06-01 57.669561 99.868942 188.612586 431.215971 1332.707197 7.411298e+03 6.814201e+05
2025-06-08 52.576047 92.163385 177.067273 416.483696 1358.402493 8.638100e+03 2.880806e+06
2025-06-15 51.712929 92.956034 185.110619 462.709905 1702.120215 1.508193e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 48.537992 88.650450 180.665578 470.140220 1880.195679 2.164751e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 46.301469 86.091536 180.125056 491.178041 2174.119224 3.594701e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 43.021320 80.825487 171.732053 481.547863 2269.934129 4.840431e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 42.350432 81.325816 178.586844 532.308916 2898.940454 1.247530e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 41.353722 80.934209 182.970628 576.461661 3610.160865 3.902501e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 40.059675 79.667843 184.646048 610.747592 4356.861789 1.675588e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 38.514429 77.604137 183.602859 632.790806 5070.055380 1.378229e+07 NaN
2025-08-10 36.721081 74.728263 179.604018 639.144835 5629.193588 9.584161e+08 NaN
2025-08-17 34.659068 70.975719 172.302725 625.944172 5871.870310 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 32.605067 67.063096 163.954729 604.390518 5935.080709 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 30.701165 63.374276 155.834852 581.441792 5933.749057 NaN NaN